Vulnerability to poverty, climate change and natural hazards in Ecuador

The frequency and intensity of natural disasters have increased worldwide in recent years, and Ecuador is no exception. This paper provides measures of vulnerability to poverty at the household level, considering extreme climate-weather events related to temperature changes and other natural hazards such as floods, volcanic activity, earthquakes, droughts, landslides and fires. We use two types of datasets: the National Household Survey ENEMDU from the SEDLAC database, which provides insights into household coping strategies, and data on temperature, natural hazards and exposure at the canton level from official registers, EM-DAT and NASA. Results indicate that both natural hazards and household coping capacity shape vulnerability to poverty. About 13% of the country's population is vulnerable to poverty, with higher rates in rural areas than in urban areas. Vulnerability is higher in provinces with higher effective poverty rates. Factors such as overcrowding, informal employment, poor quality housing and reliance on agriculture are associated with increased vulnerability. Social assistance programs can mitigate some risks; however, their coverage is uneven. Moreover, indigenous households are disproportionately affected, particularly in the Amazon and Sierra regions. The evidence generated by this approach suggests concrete priority actions to support households in natural disasters and achieve disaster resilience.Policy HighlightsThis study bridges household-level vulnerability to poverty analysis with a risk climate approach to provide evidence from a micro perspective to strengthen policy design.Results indicate that approximately 13% of Ecuador’s population is vulnerable to poverty.Strong regional disparities in our results underscore the need for tailored territorial policies.Key factors related to vulnerability include overcrowding, informal employment, poor building materials and reliance on agriculture, which demand integrated cross-sector policy responses.Household vulnerability to poverty is closely tied to limited coping and adaptation capacity; social assistance helps but remains insufficient.