Tradition and transition: social media evidence on fertility attitudes and gender differences in China

Ideational changes play a pivotal role in understanding China’s low fertility. However, existing research presents conflicting evidence on whether ideational factors regarding fertility have undergone significant changes and how they are evolving in China. This study leverages big data on public opinion from three major Chinese social media platforms between 2012 and 2021, employing machine learning methods to provide new evidence on this ideational transition. The results indicate a continuous increase in both individualism and negative marriage attitudes from 2012 to 2021. Meanwhile, feminism and negative attitudes toward traditional culture regarding fertility intensified considerably between 2016 and 2021. These ideational changes contribute significantly to explaining the decline in fertility attitudes. By contrast, collectivism appears to play a protective role in fostering more positive fertility attitudes. Heterogeneity analyses indicate that the negative effects of traditional culture regarding fertility, feminism, and physiological stress on fertility attitudes are more pronounced among women than men. These findings deepen our understanding of the interplay between tradition and modern ideational transitions in shaping fertility attitudes in China and reveal gender differences in responsiveness to ideational change.