The disloyal electorate: defiance and Italy’s constitutional referendum
Abstract
This note reinterprets the March 2026 Italian constitutional referendum on judicial reform, challenging the view that it marked a defeat for Giorgia Meloni and a victory for the opposition. Using ecological data and regional regression analysis, it argues that the result is better understood as electoral defiance. Contrary to theories emphasizing party cues, voters often diverged from their preferred parties – a pattern also evident in the 2020 referendum. Drawing on the concept of constitutional patriotism, the article suggests that opposition reflected attachment to the constitutional status quo rather than partisan mobilization. In line with Albert Venn Dicey’s notion of the referendum as a ‘people’s veto,’ the findings highlight voter autonomy and question the predictive value of referenda for subsequent electoral outcomes.
Fields of Study & Subjects
Populism
Right-Wing Movements
Political Systems and Governance
Historical and Environmental Studies
Publication details
- Journal / source
- Contemporary Italian Politics
- Publisher
- Informa UK Limited
- Volume
- 18
- Issue
- 2
- Pages
- 326–334
- Publication date
- 3 April 2026
- Language
- EN