Spatial politics of displacement: ethnic conflict, governance fragility, and livelihood resilience in Southern Ethiopia

Internal displacement in Global South secondary towns is a protracted challenge, yet micro-level socio-spatial dynamics remain underexplored. This study investigates conflict-induced displacement in Nagelle Town, Ethiopia, where ethnic violence, governance fragility, and climate stressors intersect. Using a mixed-methods approach—including a household survey (N=1,506), qualitative interviews, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR)—the research assesses impacts through an SDG-oriented framework. Findings reveal that displacement is sustained, driven by recurrent ethnicized land disputes and environmental pressures. Displaced households face severe disruptions, including an average 65% income loss and restricted service access; female-headed households are disproportionately affected by caregiving burdens and informal labor precarity. GWR analysis identifies significant spatial clustering in peripheral “aid deserts” characterized by infrastructural deprivation. While households demonstrate adaptive resilience through informal trade and indigenous networks, institutional neglect is stark, evidenced by 0% governmental compensation for lost assets. The study argues that humanitarian-only responses are insufficient. It calls for a “people-in-place” urban policy shift that integrates displaced populations into formal citizenship frameworks and promotes spatial justice. By aligning secondary-town development with inclusive SDG goals, local governance can transition from crisis management to fostering sustainable, resilient urban recovery for marginalized populations.