Climate-induced displacement and urban stress in fragile states: insights from Somalia

Climate-induced displacement is increasingly reshaping fragile states undergoing rapid urbanization. This narrative integrative review examines the interconnected dynamics linking droughts, floods, pastoral livelihood losses, migration patterns, and growing urban pressures in Somali cities. The study synthesizes evidence on how environmental shocks, weak governance structures, and institutional gaps collectively intensify displacement and urban vulnerability. Environmental shocks and fragile institutions highlight the urgent need for improved urban planning, secure land tenure systems, and resilient infrastructure to bridge rural–urban divides. The analysis identifies a multi-causal pathway through which rural livelihood crises trigger displacement into expanding urban settlements, generating pressures on housing, water access, employment opportunities, and social cohesion. Beyond synthesizing existing literature, the review contributes a conceptual understanding of the climate–displacement–urban stress nexus in fragile governance contexts. The findings highlight the importance of coordinated responses involving municipal authorities, traditional governance systems, and international partners to address vulnerabilities emerging in informal settlements, service provision, and tenure security. Strengthening urban resilience in Somalia, therefore, requires integrated policy frameworks, evidence-based planning, and improved monitoring systems, including geospatial data and long-term research on displacement dynamics. Such efforts are essential for supporting sustainable urban development and reducing vulnerability in rapidly urbanizing fragile-state contexts.