Understanding the determinants of climate change adaptation choices among smallholder farmers and existing barriers in Metuge district, northern Mozambique

Climate change poses a significant threat to smallholder farmers in the Metuge district, whose livelihoods depend on rain-fed agriculture. This study examines farmers’ perceptions of climate, adaptation barriers and determinants of adaptation choices using cross-sectional data from 383 households and 34 years of meteorological records (1989–2022). The multivariate probit model, weighted-average index and problem-confrontation index were employed for analysis. Farmers’ perceptions strongly aligned with meteorological evidence: 65.54% perceived a decrease in rainfall and 71.02% perceived an increase in temperatures, which was validated by observed trends showing a rainfall decline of −22.7 mm/decade and significant temperature increases of +0.28 °C/decade (minimum) and +0.29 °C/decade (maximum) (p < 0.001). Rainy season precipitation declined −38.6 mm/decade, with dry spell duration increasing +2.24 days/decade (p = 0.035) and growing season temperatures rising +0.26 °C/decade (p < 0.001). Market distance, livestock ownership, off-farm income, association membership, extension services, climate training, credit access and climate information significantly influenced adaptation choices. Major barriers included pest incidence, high input costs, poor soil fertility and inadequate institutional support. Findings provide empirical evidence for policy interventions promoting climate resilience through enhanced institutional support, credit access, improved market opportunities and timely climate information, crucial for food security and sustainable livelihoods in vulnerable regions.