SARIMAX modeling of market shocks to the Philippine pork supply and demand

African swine fever (ASF) has significantly disrupted pork supply in the Philippines, highlighting the need for evidence-based planning of repopulation and price stabilization programmes. This study develops a policy-oriented forecasting framework to support programme design and evaluation in the Philippine pork sector. Quarterly data from 2010 Q1 to 2025 Q3 were obtained from the Philippine Statistics Authority, National Meat Inspection Service, and Bureau of Animal Industry. Pork supply was constructed from domestic production, cold storage inventories, and imports, while demand was approximated as supply net of ending stocks. A Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) was estimated to incorporate key market and macroeconomic drivers, including yellow corn prices, pig farmgate prices, Christmas seasonality, population growth, household final consumption expenditure (HFCE), and retail pork prices. Forecast results indicate that projected pork supply in 2026–2027 is sufficient to meet expected demand, providing an average quarterly buffer equivalent to approximately 16 days of consumption. The findings suggest that supply responds positively to higher farmgate prices, while demand expands with population growth and rising household consumption. The proposed framework offers a practical tool for strengthening evidence-based livestock sector policy and programme evaluation.