Framing conditionality in times of crisis: EU institutional responses to Turkey’s democratic decline (2014–2024)

How consistent is the European Union’s (EU) response to the growing democratic decline in its neighbourhood? While existing research has examined the domestic drivers of autocratisation in the neighbourhood and its impact on the EU’s transformative power, the variability and contestation within the EU’s institutional response remain underexplored. In this article, we aim to address this gap by analysing how the European Commission, the European Parliament, and the European Council have framed and operationalised conditionality toward Turkey over the past decade (2014–2024). Through a systematic frame analysis of official EU documents and approximately 7,000 coded statements, we reveal diverging views on Turkey among EU institutions rooted in competing normative and strategic logics, alongside agreement on the use of punitive conditionality combined with sustained dialogue with Turkey. Our core argument is that while these dynamics reveal differences of views on Turkey among EU institutions, they reflect an evolving hybrid model of the EU’s engagement style with Turkey. This is shaped and constrained by geopolitical conditions and Turkey’s regime change, and mixes the EU’s enlargement policy tools, namely political conditionality with new foreign policy conditions, and normative considerations with geopolitical interests in dealing with rapidly de-democratising candidates.