Determinants of match-day attendance in English Premiership Rugby

Purpose/Rationale: Our study examines the determinants of match-day attendance in English Premiership Rugby, focusing on outcome uncertainty, team performance, and seasonal influences. Because rugby remains under-examined relative to football and other UK sports, our paper addresses a gap in the spectator-demand literature.Design/Methodology/Approach: Using 634 Premiership fixtures across six seasons, we estimate a log-linear OLS model with club fixed effects (home and away) and season fixed effects.Findings: Outcome uncertainty has no meaningful association with attendance. Instead, recent team performance, match status, and seasonal timing are the primary drivers, with stronger prior performance and playoff fixtures linked to larger crowds. Monthly variation and substantial club-level heterogeneity indicate that demand is shaped by both temporal and structural factors.Practical Implications: Clubs should intensify marketing during periods of strong performance, apply differentiated pricing and packaging for playoff fixtures, and use targeted promotions in lower-demand months.Research Contribution: Our work advances rugby demand research by documenting the limited role of uncertainty of outcome and identifying robust performance and calendar effects in Premiership Rugby.Originality/Value: This is the first multi-season econometric analysis of Premiership Rugby attendances, providing actionable insights to support revenue stability and fan engagement.