The Role of Local Conservation Policies in Shaping Land Use: A Socioecological Systems Analysis in the Hudson River Estuary Watershed in New York State

Local land-use planning is an important factor in ecosystem management. Ecologists and conservation scientists can provide land-use planners with conservation guidelines to minimize the negative impacts of development on ecosystems. In this study, we apply Ostrom’s socioecological systems (SES) framework to examine the relationships between the land-use and land-cover (LULC) changes at the municipal level, associated values of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Social Vulnerability Index (SVI), and various municipal conservation actions in the Hudson River estuary watershed in New York State. We developed a comprehensive Municipal Conservation Efforts Index (MCEI) that looks at the adoption and implementation of nineteen possible practices, plans, and policies by local governments to achieve conservation and climate goals. We conducted spatial regression analysis to investigate the impact of MCEI and SVI values in LULC changes across 256 municipalities, employing three spatial regression models: the spatial lag model, the spatially lagged X model, and the spatial error model. The results revealed significant associations between the MCEI, the SVI, and changes in several different LULC classes, including developed open space and medium-intensity developed land. We suggest that the implementation of conservation tools included in the MCEI as well as increases in social vulnerability parameters are associated with the decrease in developed land. The results also confirmed spatial dependency for several LULC classes among neighboring municipalities, which can inform decisions regarding zoning regulations, infrastructure development, and conservation efforts to ensure sustainable land-use practices across municipalities.