Pacing strategies in elite cross-country Olympic mountain bikers: trends in power and speed across World Cup circuits

This study aimed to characterise pacing strategies in elite cross-country Olympic (XCO) mountain biking by analysing trends and asymmetries in power output and speed across World Cup events. Lap-by-lap mean values of speed (km·h−1) and power output (W) were obtained from official races. The Kendall rank correlation coefficient (τ) assessed monotonic trends across laps, and an asymmetry index (Asy) quantified the proportion of time above or below the mean. Pacing signatures were defined by combining both indices (––, ±, ±, ++). Results were summarised by performance level (Top 15, 16–50, >50) and circuit. Power output decreased in 95.7% of files (mean τ = –0.63, p < 0.15), while speed showed greater variability (43% decreasing, 53% increasing). Positive power asymmetry predominated (57.4%), indicating higher initial intensities followed by sustained effort below the mean. The most frequent pacing signature was decreasing – positive (±, 60.6%). Top riders maintained more stable speeds despite similar power declines. Circuit characteristics strongly influenced pacing, with Lenzerheide showing increasing speed (τ = 0.50) and Snowshoe decreasing (τ = –0.47). Elite XCO riders exhibit pacing patterns with positive power asymmetry, greater speed stability among top performers and circuit-dependent modulation.