Season-long worst-case scenario analysis of peak high-intensity locomotor demands in English League One professional soccer players

This study examined positional differences, match-to-match variability, and seasonal exposure to peak locomotor demands in professional soccer players. Global positioning system (GPS) data were collected from 24 outfield players across 46 matches (600 player – match observations). Peak high-speed distance (HSD), sprint distance (SD), and acceleration – deceleration density (AD) were quantified using fixed 1-minute worst-case scenarios (WCS), expressed as absolute values and relative to each player’s individual seasonal maximum (%iWCS). Peak HSD and AD differed by position (p < 0.05), with central midfielders exceeding centre-backs by +10.49 m·min−1 for HSD, while strikers demonstrated greater AD (+0.48 AU·min−1). No positional differences were observed for SD (p = 0.357). Within-player variability ranged from 22–28% (HSD), 45–62% (SD), and 23–42% (AD). Mean relative exposure remained below individual maxima across positions (HSD: 63–69%; SD: 41–49%; AD: 45–60% iWCS), with near-maximal exposures (≥85% iWCS) occurring in only 5–20% of observations. Peak locomotor demands were largely independent of match outcome and location. These findings indicate that worst-case scenario demands are position-specific, highly variable, and infrequently reach near-maximal levels during competition. Practitioners should consider both absolute and relative measures when interpreting peak match demands and ensure that training exposes players to the upper range of observed intensities.