Distribution of Hippophae L. in Nepal under the gradients of space, time, and climate change

The Genus Hippophae L. (Elaeagnaceae), known for its ecological resilience and socio-economic significance, faces increasing threats from habitat degradation and human-induced activities. Despite its importance, research on species’ response to climatic shifts is limited. This study investigates the geographical distribution and habitat suitability of Hippophae to understand how changing environmental conditions affect its distribution patterns in the Himalayan region. Using an ensemble modeling approach, we analyzed the habitat suitability under past, present, and future climatic scenarios. Bioclimatic variables were key determinants of species distribution, with temperature-related factors showing strong influence. The ensemble model, integrating six robust algorithms, showed exceptional predictive accuracy (TSS > 0.80). Analysis of field surveys, online sources, and herbarium data revealed an upward shift in species habitat toward higher elevations in recent decades. Future projections indicate expansion of suitable habitat, particularly in central and eastern regions, with contrasting trends in protected areas. Suitable habitat is projected to expand by 3.32%(2050) and 11.21% (2070) under SSP 2–4.5 and by 11.21% (2050) and 12.42% (2070) under SSP5-8.5. The results predict reduced suitable habitat in west Nepal, with expansion in central and eastern Nepal. The results highlight climate-driven distribution shifts and provides guidance for conservation planning in Nepal.