Evaluating the Ability of Risk Assessments to Predict Success in Texas Reentry Courts

Criminal justice practice commonly relies on risk assessments. Texas reentry courts are no different. However, there is a lack of research examining risk assessment scores among reentry court participants and if scores can predict programmatic success. The present study contributes to our understanding of predictors of success in reentry courts with particular attention to risk assessment scores by examining total risk score and scores on seven sub-scales of risk (e.g., peers, neighborhood, substance use). Results indicate that those with a higher total risk score are less likely to graduate, aligning with conventional knowledge on risk and programmatic success in other justice programs. However, sub-scales were not independently related to programmatic success. Additionally, in all models, Black or African American and Hispanic participants were less likely to graduate compared to White participants, indicating that race/ethnicity is a more consistent predictor of success than risk assessment scores. These findings can be understood by considering cumulative disadvantage in case processing and focal concerns perspectives. Texas reentry courts should consider what they can do to reduce racial disparities in graduation as these persist despite controlling for total risk score.