Climate variability, adaptation strategies and livelihood resilience of smallholder farmers in Dawuro zone, Southwest Ethiopia

Climate variability poses significant challenges to smallholder farmers whose livelihoods depend on rain-fed agriculture in Ethiopia. This study examined climate variability, farmers' adaptation strategies and their implications for livelihood resilience in Loma District, Dawuro Zone, Southwest Ethiopia. Climatic and hydrological data for the period 1990–2024 were analyzed using the Mann–Kendall trend test, Sen's slope estimator, and the standardized precipitation index (SPI). In addition, a household survey of 242 farmers, supported by focus group discussions and key informant interviews, was conducted to examine adaptation practices and their determinants. Results reveal a significant increasing trend in minimum temperature across all altitudinal zones (0.03 °C–0.05 °C per year), while rainfall exhibited high inter-annual variability with frequent drought episodes, particularly in lowland areas. The SPI analysis indicated that approximately 34% of the years experienced moderate to severe drought conditions. Farmers have adopted several adaptation strategies, including crop diversification (75.2%), intercropping (72.7%), agroforestry (64.4%) and soil and water conservation practices (54.5%). These practices contributed to improved crop productivity (75.2%), reduced erosion-related losses (68.2%) and increased household income (49.6%). Multivariate probit analysis identified key determinants of adaptation, including gender, education, farm size, land tenure security, access to credit, extension services, climate information and cooperative membership. Qualitative findings further highlighted the importance of institutional support and knowledge access in facilitating adaptation. The study concludes that strengthening climate information services, improving access to extension and credit and promoting climate-smart agricultural practices tailored to agro-ecological zones are critical for enhancing livelihood resilience among smallholder farmers in Ethiopia.