Tariffs on Medical Goods: Pass-through, Geography, and Aggregate Costs to the US Health-care System

Have recent tariffs resulted in increased costs for the US healthcare system? We examine US trade data and compile a database of statutory tariff changes. Tariffs on medical goods narrowly defined resulted in $3.4 Billion in duties assessed between February and July 2025—more than 10 times the same period in 2024, with a 55.8 percent rate of pass-through at the US border. We estimate that had medical goods imports observed in 2024 been subject to the statutory tariff levels prevailing in August 2025, assessed duties would have been $15.8 Billion, almost 30 times higher than those observed in real-time. Our aggregates understate imports of medical goods and other imports used in healthcare settings, as data limitations compel us to omit purchases of imported goods for construction, maintenance, and operations of facilities, as well as imports under certain HS10 and HS6 tariff codes that are used when identifying medical goods in many contexts but contain a mixture of imports for medical and non-medical purposes. Institutional subscribers to the NBER working paper series, and residents of developing countries may download this paper without additional charge at www.nber.org.