Dynamic assessment of carbon emissions and energy payback time in the life cycle of photovoltaic systems: a case study of a 1 MWp multicrystalline silicon PV plant in Xinjiang

Abstract To achieve dynamic evaluation of carbon emissions and energy recovery time in photovoltaic systems, this paper takes a 1 MWp polycrystalline silicon photovoltaic power station in Xinjiang as the research object, and constructs a life cycle assessment model that integrates carbon emission time density function and dynamic energy recovery time. By introducing a time distribution function, the carbon emissions of each stage are continuously modeled on the time axis to achieve dynamic visualization analysis of the system’s carbon energy performance. The research results indicate that the production stage has the highest proportion of carbon emissions, and the operation and recovery stage gradually offsets the initial carbon debt, achieving net carbon reduction throughout the entire lifecycle of the system. This method can provide a quantitative tool for low-carbon optimization and sustainable deployment of regional photovoltaic systems.