Green vs growth? Exploring British Columbia’s energy transition trade-offs using integrated energy systems modelling

Abstract Decarbonizing industrialized economies through electrification requires electricity systems to simultaneously achieve dramatic capacity expansion, sustained reliability, and emissions reductions. We present a novel soft-linkage methodology between the CIMS energy-economy model and the COPPER electricity system planning model to quantify how economy-wide policies translate into specific electricity system requirements and greenhouse gas outcomes for the Canadian province of British Columbia. Our analysis examines two scenarios: one reflecting implemented policies, and another adding proposed climate policies alongside electrified industrial projects, including liquefied natural gas facilities and large-scale mining operations. Results reveal dramatically different infrastructure requirements between scenarios, with the latter requiring substantially higher electricity capacity expansion, dominated by variable renewable energy and higher peak demand growth. Emissions outcomes diverge: while implemented policies deliver meaningful emissions reductions, net-zero aligned proposed policies achieve smaller overall reductions when accounting for prospective emissions from fossil fuel projects, which offset decarbonization elsewhere in the economy. Proactive energy system planning and accelerated infrastructure permitting and construction will be required to meet decarbonization and economic development goals. British Columbia’s experience may offer insights for other jurisdictions pursuing both natural resource development and climate goals. Our approach can be adapted by other jurisdictions using similar models to assess their own energy transition pathways.