Drought impacts on global crop production decline despite its frequency and severity intensifying

Abstract Climate change is intensifying the frequency and severity of droughts, posing a significant threat to global crop production. Accurately quantifying drought impacts is challenging and critical for mitigation. Here, we use a high-resolution, bottom–up assessment framework to analyze drought impacts on yields of four major crops—maize, soybean, rice, and wheat—at county, provincial, and national levels over 1997–2021. Results show yield losses escalate dramatically with spatial granularity, from 3.3% at the national level to 10.8% at the county level, with soybeans (16.3%) and maize (11.4%) being the most vulnerable. Despite an increase in drought frequency, drought-induced crop losses declined significantly, owing to the improvements in irrigation. Notably, a 10% increase in agricultural water use was significantly associated with a 1.71% reduction in yield losses. Our findings not only highlight the critical importance of scale-dependent risk assessments but also provide robust evidence and spatial pattern for the significant role of irrigation in mitigating drought risks.