Climate risks of global deployed solar photovoltaic systems

Abstract Solar photovoltaics (PV) are vital to the global energy transition, yet their climate resilience remains poorly understood. Existing projections typically evaluate theoretical PV power generation potential ( P solarPV ) across all land surfaces, rather than at actual PV-deployment sites. Here, we assess climate risks to global operational PV systems over 2015–2100 under three greenhouse-gas emission scenarios. We found that under a high-emission scenario, rising temperatures outweigh solar radiation gains, causing a net decline in global P solarPV by 2100, with Northern America experiencing the most severe losses. High emissions also impair the PV power reliability, increasing the annual frequencies of poor-power days while decreasing rich-power days. Although intra-annual volatilities in P solarPV weakens globally, it intensifies in key regions like central Europe. Our results reveal a spatial mismatch between current PV infrastructure and climate-resilient zones, underscoring that emission mitigation and strategic, diversified deployment are imperative for a secure solar-powered future.