Future climate extremes enhance interannual variability of net primary production in Central Asia

Abstract Vegetation productivity is vulnerable to climate change in Central Asia, where ecosystems are projected to experience a stronger warming trend than global mean and more severe climate extremes. However, how these future climate changes influence the interannual variation of net primary production (NPP) in Central Asia is still limited. In this study, we used nine Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models to investigate the interannual variability (IAV) of NPP in Central Asia and its attributions to region, climatic factors, and climate extremes in the future (2021–2100) under four shared socioeconomic pathways scenarios (SSPs). We found that the NPP interannual variation would be larger under higher emissions scenarios with larger extremes in precipitation. The standard deviation of NPP IAV would increase by 21% under SSP5-8.5 compared to that under SSP1-2.6. Precipitation IAV exerts a larger contribution than temperature IAV to NPP IAV in Central Asia, due to the strong response of NPP to precipitation. Around 92% of the future NPP IAV can be associated with NPP extremes over Central Asia. Dry and wet conditions are the main climate extremes causing NPP extremes in Central Asia, especially in north and southeast of Central Asia. Dry conditions cause 33% of negative NPP extremes and wet conditions cause 37% of positive NPP extremes under SSP5-8.5. Our findings underscore the critical role of future climate extremes, especially the water conditions, in causing the risk of ecosystem stability posed by future climate changes in Central Asia.