How many people live near protected areas in developing countries? Estimates from gridded population data (2000–2020)

Abstract Impact evaluations of protected areas (PAs) routinely define ‘local populations’ through spatial proximity, yet the demographic scale implied by these definitions is almost never quantified. We estimate population counts inside PAs and within 10 km of their boundaries for 75 low- and lower-middle-income countries (LMICs) in 2000 and 2020, using the World Database on PAs and globally harmonized gridded population data (GHSL, with WorldPop as robustness check). India, which represents about 36% of the LMIC population, is excluded because its national PAs are not publicly available in the World Database on Protected Areas. Results are decomposed by IUCN management category (strict and non-strict). In 2020, out of a combined population of about 2.48 billion people, approximately 61 million (2.5%) lived inside PAs and 732 million (29.5%) lived inside or within 10 km of their boundaries; the corresponding figures for 2000 are 19 million (1.1%) and 258 million (15.4%). Although the IUCN management category is not recorded for 59% of PAs, among those for which it is documented PA-adjacent populations are located mostly near non-strict PAs (IUCN categories IV to VI) rather than strict protection regimes (IUCN categories I to III), largely because non-strict PAs are more numerous and cover more land. These population orders of magnitude are relevant for interpreting the scope of PA impact evaluations but do not themselves constitute impact estimates.