What drives institutional action for wildfire resilience? Determinants of targeted grazing attitudes and adoption on national forests in the Western US

Abstract Increasing wildfire severity is driving interest in new land management approaches that can reduce fuels while also remaining feasible within land governance systems. Targeted grazing, the practice of using livestock to manage vegetation, is one potential tool that can be integrated with other strategies to increase wildfire resilience. However, adoption of targeted grazing often requires action by public lands managers in complex institutional environments. We quantitatively tested a conceptual framework that integrates the theory of planned behavior and adaptive governance to evaluate factors influencing staff attitudes and actions related to targeted grazing. Through a survey of over 1000 United States Department of Agriculture Forest Service staff and a path analysis modeling approach, we identified the key determinants of attitudes and intended actions to implement targeted grazing as a wildfire risk management tool. Attitudes about rancher ability to implement targeted grazing and general beliefs about the impact of livestock grazing on native vegetation were the strongest predictors of staff attitudes about targeted grazing effectiveness. Staff members’ perception of their available time was among the most important predictors of their intention to adopt targeted grazing. Limited monitoring capacity emerged as the primary constraint on perceived time availability, in contrast to other factors like staff shortages, funding, or environmental regulation requirements. Our findings show how institutional constraints and individual psycho-social factors jointly shape willingness to pursue targeted grazing within public land wildfire management.