Integrating upstream–downstream strategies into a green multi-pronged model for local food msmes in Bangka Belitung

Abstract Strengthening upstream and downstream strategies is essential for improving the performance of local food micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSMEs) and enhancing food security in island regions. This study examines the combined influence of upstream and downstream factors within a green multi-pronged framework for sustainable local food development in the Bangka Belitung Islands, Indonesia. Primary data were collected through a quantitative survey of 100 valid respondents, comprising 70 MSME operators, 28 policy stakeholders, and 2 with dual roles, across seven districts. Data were analysed using multiple linear regression (SPSS 26) to evaluate the individual and joint effects of upstream development (X 1 ) and downstream strategies (X 2 ) on the multi-pronged strategy (Y). The regression results indicate that downstream strategies have a significant and positive influence on the multi-pronged strategy (β = 0.505, p < 0.001), while upstream strategies show a positive but not significant effect (β = 0.225, p = 0.083). The model explains 68% of the variance (R 2 = 0.68), confirming its strong explanatory power. These findings emphasize that downstream capacity, particularly product diversification, marketing, and branding, plays a more decisive role in enhancing MSME competitiveness. Nonetheless, effective policy coordination is needed to strengthen upstream–downstream linkages, enabling green innovation, circular resource use, and inclusive growth in local food systems.