SARIMA Model: Time Series Forecasting of Temperature and Salinity in Madura Strait Up to 2030

Abstract Aquaculture in Madura Strait, particularly shrimp ponds, is greatly impacted by temperature and salinity. The fishing industry is being impacted by the increasingly complicated patterns of salinity and temperature. In order to predict future trends for efficient aquaculture planning and management, this study uses the Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) modelling to forecast temperature and salinity. The data used consists of time series from 2014 to 2024 obtained from the Marine Copernicus website, and the data is forecasted for the years 2025 to 2030. The appropriate model is SARIMA (2, 1, 1) (2, 1, 1, 12) for temperature and SARIMA (1, 1, 1) (1, 1, 1, 12) for salinity, based on MAE (Mean Absolute Error), RMSE (Root Mean Squared Error) dan MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) dan AIC (Akaike Information Criterion) values. The forecasted values for 2025-2030 are approximately 28.49-31.09 °C for temperature and 31.87-34.10 PPT for salinity. This study helps with the planning and administration of shrimp farming in the future and offers significant insights for researchers, legislators, academics, and aquaculture businesses.