Evaluating waste-to-SAF options for decarbonizing the aviation sector under carbon pricing policies

Abstract The aviation sector is under growing pressure to cut carbon emissions, driving strong interest in Waste-to-Sustainable Aviation Fuel (W-SAF) produced from waste. These fuels not only contribute to global climate targets but also reflect Circular Economy (CE) principles by turning waste into valuable resources and enhancing resource efficiency. This study introduces an integrated framework combining CE strategies, carbon pricing policies. It utilizes optimization modelling to evaluate the W-SAF adoption scenarios. An Agent-Based Model (ABM) was developed in Python to simulate airline behaviour under carbon pricing. The model allows autonomous fuel selection based on flight distance, passenger load, fuel cost, and lifecycle emissions. Three W-SAF pathways were assessed, which are Anaerobic Digestion (AD), gasification–Fischer–Tropsch (GFT), and Hydrothermal Liquefaction (HTL). The simulation showed that AD-based SAF was consistently chosen in all flight scenarios due to its advantageous cost and emission performance, delivering a 10 % cost reduction and a 77 % decrease in lifecycle emissions. These findings highlight the potential of carbon pricing to drive cleaner fuel choices and demonstrate the value of integrated modelling approaches in supporting the transition toward more sustainable aviation systems.