Quantifying the relative contributions of climate change and human activities to vegetation dynamics in the Yellow River Basin, China

Abstract Understanding spatiotemporal vegetation dynamics and their driving factors is critical for ecological conservation and ecosystem functioning under environmental change. However, the relative roles of climate change and human activities in shaping long-term vegetation dynamics remain unclear. Here, we integrated multi-source remote sensing data to construct a long-term NDVI dataset and investigated vegetation dynamics in the Yellow River Basin from 1982 to 2020 under the Grain for Green Project. Sensitivity analysis and residual trend analysis were applied to quantify the contributions of climate factors (temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation) and human activities. Our results revealed a significant increasing trend of vegetation dynamics from 1982 to 2020, with the significantly increased area rising from 28.86% (1982–2000) to 49.59% (2000–2020). Temperature and precipitation were significant positive with vegetation change, and account for 65.27% of the vegetation change. Human activities substantially promoted vegetation growth, with their positive contribution increasing from 42.35% to 68.92% between the two periods. Moreover, the area experiencing a significant increase in vegetation cover attributable to human activities expanded by 22.55% after 2000. This study highlights the critical role of climate change and human activity in driving the spatiotemporal vegetation dynamics, and provide a scientific reference for ecological conservation and land management strategies.