Impact of climate change on agricultural production and food security in Somalia: a case study of Jowhar district

Abstract Climate change poses significant challenges to agricultural sustainability and food security in fragile environments such as Somalia, yet district-level empirical evidence remains scarce, particularly for riverine farming systems like Jowhar district. This study fills that gap by examining the socio-demographic characteristics, perceptions of climate change, observed impacts on agricultural production, and adaptation strategies among rural households in Jowhar. Using a cross-sectional quantitative survey, primary data were collected in 2025 from 205 respondents in Jowhar district and analyzed using descriptive statistics and Spearman’s rank correlation ( ρ ) to examine associations between climate change awareness, perceived impacts on agriculture, household food insecurity, and adaptation responses. Results show that 99% of respondents recognize the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural productivity and livelihoods, alongside widespread food insecurity and reliance on food assistance. Climate change awareness is high (96.1%), mainly informed by radio/TV and workshops; however, traditional coping strategies remain prevalent yet inadequate without institutional support. At the 1% significance level ( p < 0.01), climate change awareness is strongly associated with perceived reductions in food availability ( ρ = 0.700). Respondents strongly prioritize investments in irrigation infrastructure, climate-resilient seeds, and early warning systems, viewing a national climate-resilient food security policy as crucial. The findings reveal that effective adaptation in Somalia requires integrating indigenous knowledge with formal policies, strengthening institutional capacity, and ensuring sustained financial and technical support to build resilient agricultural systems. The study contributes novel district-level empirical insights to the limited body of literature on climate change and food security in Somalia, offering practical policy directions for climate-resilient agricultural development.