Cost-performance analysis of terrestrial perovskite and perovskite/silicon tandem photovoltaics

Abstract While crystalline silicon (c-Si) dominates the photovoltaic market, the plateau in its efficiency enhancement and the constrained potential for further cost reductions underscore the imperative for next-generation technologies. This study presents a comprehensive cost-performance analysis of terrestrial perovskite solar modules (PSMs) and perovskite/silicon tandem solar modules (TSMs) for utility-scale power plants, projecting their cost trajectories against the c-Si benchmark. Our findings reveal that scaling production to the GW-level could reduce PSM manufacturing costs to 0.657 CNY/W at 20% efficiency. More significantly, parallel-connected TSMs are projected to achieve cost parity in power plant construction with c-Si systems by 2027, developing a decisive advantage of 0.09 CNY/W by 2030, primarily due to a drastic reduction in balance-of-system costs driven by high efficiency. Consequently, the levelized cost of energy for tandem systems is expected to fall below 0.150 CNY/kWh by 2027, demonstrating their strong potential to not only compete with but eventually surpass the economic viability of incumbent silicon technology, thereby accelerating the energy transition.