How much can we save? Upper bound cost and emissions benefits from commercial and industrial load flexibility

Abstract When appropriately incentivized, load shifting by commercial and industrial power consumers can reduce costs and Scope 2 emissions for the consumer and the grid. Incentivizing this behavior requires tools for valuing flexibility amidst the heterogeneity in load characteristics across diverse sectors and the spatiotemporal variation in electricity prices and emissions factors. This work presents a top-down approach to use idealized models of load flexibility to broadly understand the benefits of flexibility based on system uptime, power capacity (p_(c,t)), energy capacity (e_c), and round-trip efficiency (η_RTE). Depending on the region and season, cost savings from flexibility range from 0 to over 100% and emissions savings are generally bounded between 5-40%. We also find the magnitude and cost of emissions abatement from flexibility is highly variable and, in some cases, up to four orders of magnitude less than regional renewable energy credits or common investing or policy benchmarks like the social cost of carbon. While the value of flexibility is highly dynamic, estimating savings as a function of load characteristics and incentives can inform heuristic design of new systems, siting strategies, comparison of flexibility to other decarbonization options, and new avenues for incentivizing flexibility.