Modeling mitigation and adaptation co-benefits in rice systems in Bangladesh

Abstract Climate change threatens rice yields and global food security, while conventional flooded rice remains a major source of methane emissions. Management options that enhance both mitigation and adaptation are therefore essential. We evaluate water-saving and low-emission rice management practices, alternate wetting and drying (AWD) and system of rice intensification (SRI), compared with continuous flooding across three districts in Bangladesh using an integrated climate–crop–economic modeling framework. The analysis links climate, crop, methane, water-use, and farm economic outcomes and assesses impacts across district and farm-size strata to capture spatial and socioeconomic heterogeneity. Under warmer futures, with each management system evaluated relative to its own current-climate baseline, farm net returns vary across strata, with modest gains of up to 5% in some regions but declines of up to 10% in most areas, while methane emissions increase by 12%–55%. The modeled adoption of SRI-AWD, relative to continuous conventional flooding under both current and future climate conditions, reduces methane emissions by 35% on average while improving farm income and water-use efficiency, although outcomes vary across farm populations. These results show that SRI-AWD can reduce economic losses and emissions relative to conventional management under both current and future changing climate conditions, while highlighting that scaling potential depends on where and for whom benefits occur across heterogeneous rice-farming systems.