Contingency and the Canvass

Abstract The story of the election of 1860 is inherently tied up with the story of historical contingency: how a one-term congressman, Abraham Lincoln, could have been elected at such a profound moment in US history. In terms of contentious elections and democratization in the Americas, there are few examples with more relevance than this one. The election was, after all, the direct cause for the secession of seven Deep South states, jeopardizing the future of the oldest American republic. This chapter focuses on three moments of contingency when the 1860 campaign took turns that few could have anticipated: first: John Brown’s 1859 raid on Harpers Ferry and the profound effect it had on presidential politics; second, the story of three very different nominating conventions in the spring of 1860; finally, the way Lincoln and his campaign won the presidential canvass by targeting voters in a few “doubtful” states.