Japan’s Grand Strategy

Abstract This chapter reviews the literature on grand strategy, which has become an important ingredient to analyze the global order, particularly at a time of power transition and uncertainty. While existing studies predominantly focus on the grand strategies of superpowers, especially the US, the chapter highlights the importance of putting a spotlight on a liminal power, Japan, and applies a historical institutionalist framework to understand dynamics of grand strategy evolution. Over the past 150 years, Japan has played a vital role in disrupting and redefining the global order, partly due to its liminal position in the world and partly due to its distinctive formation of grand strategy. Historical institutionalism helps identify not only the institutional underpinnings of Japan’s strategies (path-dependency), but also the process of change and evolution through the analysis of critical junctures. Generally, a critical juncture will emerge when there is an “external shock”—an actual global or regional strategic change in international relations. While such structural changes are significant, this chapter contends that they are not the determinant, because ultimately it is an agent that designs and implements grand strategy. In this context, the analysis emphasizes the perceptions of core domestic decision-makers toward external changes, as well as domestic constrains on decision-making, as key variables shaping Japan’s grand strategy shifts. By identifying these fundamental factors, historical institutionalism can be employed not only as an analytical tool but also as a diagnostic framework for understanding the evolution of Japan’s grand strategy.