Some Things Never Change

Abstract Despite decades of empirical research that has repeatedly shown that increasing the harshness of sanctions does not deter crime, many countries, particularly the United States, continue to invest in the “deterrence through severity” (DTS) theory through the imposition, inter alia, of mandatory minimum penalties for several criminal offenses. In both 2003 and 2012, Doob and Webster critically analyzed the DTS literature, concluding in both cases that its central assumptions are not borne out in the empirical research. This chapter constitutes the third installment of this review—a 20th anniversary of sorts—which updates the list of DTS studies as well as extends it to include both general and specific deterrence. Perhaps unsurprisingly, it finds continuing support for the conclusion of a lack of empirical evidence for this theory. This journey through decades of criminological literature shows that, despite its rhetorical weight and attractiveness for policymakers, there remains compelling reasons to abandon our long-standing belief in the effectiveness of harsher punishment in deterring would-be as well as previous offenders.