A Painted Water Theory to Equip International Transboundary Basins Decision Support Models with Future Negotiation Vision

Abstract This chapter examines how the painted water (PW) theory can enhance the effectiveness of decision support models (DSMs) in transboundary water negotiations. While DSMs have evolved significantly in technical sophistication, they often fail to bridge the critical gap between politically motivated hydraulic missions and actual water needs. The PW theory, which categorizes water into red (non-negotiable), yellow (negotiable), and green (unnegotiable) classifications, offers a promising framework for addressing this limitation. Through analysis of the Blue Nile case and broader applications, this chapter demonstrates how PW can transform DSMs from tools that inadvertently legitimize inflated water capture goals into systems that facilitate more realistic and sustainable water-sharing arrangements. Furthermore, the chapter explores the institutional frameworks necessary for implementing PW classifications in international contexts. This integration represents a significant advancement in reconciling technical water management tools with complex hydropolitical realities, ultimately providing a more nuanced and effective approach to transboundary water negotiation.