An Interdisciplinary Decision Support Model Based on System Dynamics to Reach Consensus-Building in the Helmand/Hirmand Transboundary River

Abstract Innovative strategies for transboundary water negotiations are essential to effectively tackle water scarcity issues around the world. This study develops a decision support model (DSM) using system dynamics to transform hydropolitical discourse, demonstrating the potential of advanced modeling technologies to enhance international water negotiations. Focusing on the Helmand/Hirmand transboundary river between Iran and Afghanistan, the chapter introduces a dashboard that allows stakeholders to simulate complex water allocation scenarios. By integrating hydrological, economic, and ecological variables, the DSM provides a unique platform for collaborative decision-making that transcends traditional confrontational negotiation strategies. The DSM’s key innovation lies in its ability to generate shared understanding through quantitative scenario analysis. It enables riparian states to explore mutually beneficial strategies, such as lake rehabilitation and agricultural cooperation, by visualizing long-term consequences of water management decisions. The model effectively bridges knowledge gaps, facilitating dialogue and trust-building between historically conflicting parties. Critically, the approach offers a replicable framework for international water negotiations, demonstrating how technological tools can convert water-related tensions into opportunities for regional cooperation. By providing a transparent, data-driven platform for understanding complex systemic interactions, the chapter presents a transformative approach to enhance international water negotiations.