Tribal Bias: Seeing the World through a Brexit Lens

Abstract In this chapter, we look at the most concerning consequence of tribal politics: group bias. Not bias towards fellow and rival identifiers, but bias in how people perceive reality. A combination of two psychological processes—confirmation bias and rationalization—means that people adjust their perceptions and interpretations of the world to better fit their political identities. We explore how Brexit identities bias people’s views in four ways. First, we look at the broader consequences of Brexit and examine, in people’s own words, what effects they thought Brexit has had and will have. Second, we examine people’s economic perceptions and how they attribute responsibility for those economic outcomes. Third, we turn to people’s policy attitudes and show how these attitudes were brought into line with Brexit identities. Finally, we turn to the legitimacy of the political system and how Remainers, as losers of the referendum, interpreted the outcome as a product of a flawed democratic system. In all cases, we find ample evidence of tribal bias via the Brexit lens: people’s identities shape both their perceptions of the world and their own political opinions.