The demographic transition and the Moroccan economy

Abstract Morocco is experiencing an accelerated demographic transition. By 2024, the total fertility rate declined to 1.97 children per woman, falling below the replacement level of 2.1. Life expectancy has risen to over 77 years. These shifts have significantly restructured the country’s age pyramid, with a reduction in the proportion of people under the age of 18, balanced by an increase in both the working-age and ageing populations. In 2024, the proportion of people aged 60 and above accounted for 13.4% of the total population. According to the High Commission of Planning, this figure will rise to 20% by 2040. Despite these demographic shifts, Morocco’s economy continues to face challenges in creating adequate employment opportunities to absorb the growing labor force. Furthermore, the country is confronting pressing issues such as improving human capital, addressing rising youth unemployment, particularly for women, and ensuring adequate care and support for its ageing population.