Conclusions

Abstract The liberal international order (LIO) has proven to be remarkably resilient in its history since World War II and has managed to thrive in the face of previous deep contestations, such as the Cold War. This chapter starts with a brief history of the LIO and its transformations in order to document its resilience so far. I then discuss the drivers of the current deep contestations, starting with the three Is from the Introduction: intrusiveness without inclusiveness, inequality, and incapacity. In addition, there are the regime survival interests of autocratic powers, whether rising (China) or in decline (Russia). What makes the current deep contestations of the LIO unique, though, is the combination (and partial alliance) of authoritarian populism in core states of the LIO, including the United States, and these autocratic regimes. Finally, I look at possible sources of resilience of the LIO in terms of legitimacy, social trust, and institutional fit. There are three possible outcomes of the current period of deep contestations: disordering and chaos; bouncing backward by strengthening the sovereignty-based territorial state order component of the order; and bouncing back or bouncing forward of the LIO by embracing reforms to cope with the current challenges. A crucial scope condition for the LIO to survive is how its defenders react to the contemporary deep contestations.