Recurrent and Non-Recurrent Civil Wars

Abstract Chapter 4 outlines the testing of our hypotheses through quantitative research methods. First, the chapter presents the dataset of Political Agreements in Internal Conflicts (Fontana et al., 2021). Second, it describes our testing of the three hypotheses on UN leadership of the mediation process, plural justice, and inclusion of women in post-conflict society through probit regression and survival analysis. Third, it draws on practitioner workshops, academic literature, and a wealth of empirical examples from global peace agreements to discuss the findings. Chapter 4 shows that UN-led mediation significantly increases the likelihood of non-recurrence, even more so when the peace agreement also enables the participation of women in social, economic, and legal initiatives or structures in post-conflict society. The inclusion of women in post-conflict society can also independently reduce the likelihood of conflict recurrence. In contrast, the beneficial impact of plural justice measures cannot be widely generalized. In its conclusion, the chapter offers some theoretical insights into the complex and context-specific nature of war-to-peace transitions.