Unequal returns to growth and decline across US regions and social classes

Abstract Economic development theory and practice in the United States implicitly assume that because economic decline is linked to worsened deprivation, the inverse must hold: that growth generates socioeconomic prosperity. While regional economic decline and stagnation correlate with decreasing real income among lower- and middle-income families, income gains from growth accrue primarily to higher-income families. Further, economic and income change relationships are most pronounced in micropolitan and smaller metropolitan regions, questioning the universal applicability of “one-size-fits-all” development strategies. These findings challenge the dominant growth paradigm, emphasising the importance of prioritising equitable resource distribution and place-sensitive strategies in economic development.