Risk stratification in aortic stenosis: exercise haemodynamics to refine risk in early cardiac damage stages

AIMS: To describe exercise haemodynamics across cardiac damage stages and evaluate the incremental prognostic impact of cardiac damage stage and exercise-induced pulmonary hypertension (exPHT) in patients with symptomatic moderate aortic stenosis (AS) and asymptomatic severe AS. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 436 consecutive patients with ≥ moderate AS (74 ± 10 years, 32% women, 56% severe AS) underwent cardiopulmonary exercise testing with echocardiography. The primary endpoint was heart failure (HF) death and HF hospitalizations. Cardiac damage stage was 0 in 93 patients, 1 (LV damage) in 135, 2 (LA/mitral damage) in 135, and 3-4 (pulmonary vasculature/tricuspid or RV damage) in 73. Higher stages were associated with worse exercise capacity and haemodynamics. Over a median follow-up of 37 months, 65 patients met the primary endpoint. After adjustment for age, AS severity, and aortic valve replacement, cardiac damage stage and exPHT were independently associated with HF outcomes [HR per stage increase 1.51 (1.26-1.82); P < 0.001; exPHT HR 2.36 (1.10-5.07); P = 0.03]. exPHT improved risk stratification in early-stage disease (stages 1-2), conferring an approximately five-fold higher risk of HF events in patients with exPHT [HR 4.45 (1.58-12.59); P < 0.01]. CONCLUSION: In patients with ≥ moderate AS and discordant symptoms, cardiac damage stage and exPHT independently refined HF risk stratification. ExPHT provides incremental prognostic value in early damage stages (1-2), representing over half of the cohort, supporting a stepwise approach of routine damage staging with selective with exPHT assessment with exercise echocardiography in this subgroup to guide more personalized management and potentially optimize AVR timing.