Polarization, Political Turnover, and the Stability of Democratic Foreign Policy

Abstract Numerous recent studies find that democratic institutions moderate the impact of domestic political turnover on foreign policy. As such, for many foreign policy outcomes, domestic turnover has little or no impact in democracies. I consider whether this finding holds as political polarization increases. Polarization might lead voters to place less value on compromise with other political actors, freeing leaders to advance policy interests that would be considered riskier in less polarized environments. I test this expectation using the Change in Source of Leader Support database, measures of party and affective polarization, and data on states’ voting positions in the United Nations. Across a range of statistical models, I find only weak suggestive evidence that party polarization reduces the constraining impact of democracy. The findings speak to ongoing debates over the role played by democratic institutions in conditioning how and when political competition within countries translates into foreign policy change.