Climate Shocks, Political Conflict, and the Resilience of Democracies

Abstract The world is increasingly experiencing the destabilizing effects of climate change, yet we know surprisingly little about how these dynamics affect the quality and resilience of democratic governance. We argue that climate shocks, through their growing frequency and tendency to compound, trigger cascading economic and social disruptions that place sustained pressure on democratic institutions. When repeated climate-induced disasters overwhelm governments’ capacity to address citizen grievances, civil and political unrest becomes more likely. In democratic settings, these pressures increase the likelihood that governments respond to instability through repressive measures, such as prolonged states of emergency and restrictions on participation, which incrementally erode democratic resilience. To evaluate this argument, we examine whether democracies exposed to more frequent climate shocks are more likely to experience declines in democratic governance than otherwise similar democracies facing fewer shocks. Our findings support this expectation and underscore the growing risks climate change poses to democratic resilience in an era of accelerating environmental disruption.