From reformists to revolutionaries: how past experience with dissent shapes demands for democratization in resistance campaigns

Abstract Civil society organizations are drivers of revolutionary regime change. They are pivotal for maximalist anti-government campaigns by coordinating communication, facilitating mobilization, and fostering democratization. However, many such organizations long predate maximalist campaigns, having been formed around non-maximalist, “reformist” policy goals. Why do some reformist organizations escalate their demands to maximalist goals, while others do not? We argue that organizations take cues about the risks and opportunities of demand escalation from their “history of contention,” and escalate when their prior experience with anti-regime activity is diverse and sizable in its interconnectedness. We test our expectations with new data on 1,281 organizations participating in reformist dissent in Africa and Central America from 1990 to 2017. Our results suggest that histories of and organizations’ experiences with dissent are associated with shifts from reformist to revolutionary demands. Specifically, demand escalation is more likely when organizations can draw on a larger network of other organizations that they have cooperated with previously (network size) and when that network includes a more diverse set of organization types (network diversity). These associations are robust across a number of model specifications. Our findings have important implications for theories of regime change, conflict escalation, and the micro-dynamics of contentious politics.