Media reports of coup d’etat and democratic attitude in neighboring countries

Abstract This study examines the impact of a military coup on citizens’ democratic attitudes in neighboring countries. Previous studies have examined the domestic consequences of coups and the possibility of coup contagion across countries, yet little is known about how citizens in neighboring countries respond to coups, despite the potential implications of public opinion for incentives surrounding future coup attempts. Using a nationally representative survey from multiple countries and the unexpected event during survey design, we demonstrate that individuals exposed to news of the coup express greater support for democracy and elections and greater rejection of authoritarian rule, suggesting that citizens view the coup as a cause of political instability rather than a means of liberalization. The effect size is comparable across countries and respondent characteristics, while TV and radio owners react more quickly. These results cannot be explained by media bias, institutional trust, citizens’ learning about the poor performance of military regimes, or concern about their future economic instability. Given the high costs of coup attempts under strong popular opposition, stronger public support for democracy may reduce incentives for coups in neighboring countries. These findings also provide one possible micro-level explanation for the limited empirical support for the coup contagion hypothesis.