Trade misreporting: exchange rate movements and tariff evasion by firms

Abstract This study examines misreporting behaviour of firms engaged in international trade. Using detailed administrative data covering the universe of import transactions in Pakistan, we analyse how exchange rate movements interact with the incentive to under-invoice imports to evade tariffs. We use the sharp depreciation of the British pound (GBP) following the unanticipated outcome of the Brexit referendum as a quasi-natural experiment and document a statistically significant decline in misreporting of imports sourced from the UK relative to other origins. An appreciation of the Pakistani rupee against the pound lowered the financial gain from under-invoicing UK imports, prompting firms to report more accurately, particularly for high-tariff products and GBP-denominated transactions. Our findings indicate that tariff evasion is the key underlying mechanism, and we offer policy implications for improving tax compliance and the reliability of official trade statistics.