Natives’ attitudes and immigration flows to Europe

Abstract This article analyses the extent to which natives’ anti-immigration attitudes affect migration flows to European Union (EU) countries. Using bilateral panel data on migration inflows to the EU between 2000–2019, we examine how cross-country and temporal variation in natives’ anti-immigrant attitudes shapes subsequent migration from both EU and non-EU origins. To address potential reverse causality between attitudes and immigration, we employ an instrumental-variable strategy and account for interdependence across alternative EU destination countries. Our findings indicate that stronger anti-immigration attitudes significantly reduce migration inflows to EU destinations, with effects that are larger for intra-EU mobility than for migration from non-EU countries. Overall, the analysis demonstrates that public attitudes, which are often overlooked in the migration literature, play a substantial role in shaping migration patterns. More broadly, the findings underscore that negative public attitudes towards immigration can materially constrain the effectiveness of policies designed to attract skills and talent.