Public Opinion in Authoritarian Regimes

Abstract Despite lacking competitive elections and strong protections for political freedoms, politics in authoritarian regimes is still influenced by the opinions of everyday people. What do these opinions look like? Why do they matter? Research from various authoritarian regimes suggests that many citizens hold sophisticated and nuanced views about politics. People can distinguish between different political actors, and often see through propaganda. Nonetheless, many still express support for autocratic leaders. Preference falsification may explain some of these patterns, but in many cases high popular approval for autocrats remains meaningful. Despite preference falsification, public opinion still matters not only because regime support is self-reinforcing—the façade of support encourages conformity and deters dissent—but also because it influences broader political dynamics. Authoritarian governments devote vast resources to shaping public opinion through censorship and propaganda, build institutions to absorb and deflect grievances, and adjust policies in response to public sentiment. In short, even without competitive elections, public opinion still significantly affects the actions of political actors, making it crucial for our understanding of politics in authoritarian regimes.