The global distribution of critical mining impacts

Abstract Critical minerals and metals are essential for the clean energy transition, but their extraction raises concerns over local environmental and socioeconomic impacts. We combine a global registry of 9 836 critical mineral and metal mines with geospatial data and leverage exogenous commodity price variations to causally identify local mining impacts. We find that price booms for critical minerals and metals increase deforestation and economic activity around mines—but only in places with high corruption or where mines are operated by firms from weakly governed countries. The cumulative increase in critical commodity prices between 2000 and 2022 reduced forest cover by 3.6% and raised economic activity by 6% near mining sites, relative to baseline levels. This suggests that environmental and anti-corruption regulations mitigate deforestation but also limit local economic benefits by constraining firms’ responsiveness to price changes. Household survey data show critical mining booms also raise local wealth and off-farm employment, indicating positive welfare spillovers. Results underscore the trade-offs and distributional consequences involved in expanding critical mineral supply for the clean energy transition.